Happy Boxing Day!! Do you like that SFU? Canada actually celebrates Boxing Day as a real thing. Super cool.
This was written while we were waiting for the “results” games to be played, so we’re still including the previews.
UAA 50 @ WOU 82
Jacob Lampkin didn’t play. This game was never close. Oh dear. Congrats Wolves!! The evidence currently stands as: Wolves > Seawolves.
Seawolf highlights: Brian Pearson had eight boards and 16 points; and off the bench: DJ Ursery had seven points in just ten minutes; and Drew Peterson went 5-5 from the line. The Seawolves shot 81% from the line overall! Yay! Bright spot!
Wolf highlights: Tanner Omlid had 10 points, five boards, and a full house in just 20 minutes of play; Vince Boumann had 15 points and was 7-9 from the field; and Riley Hawken was back in the starting line-up and had five boards. Off the bench Nick Nestell went 3-3 and had nine points; Janvier Alaby and Darius Luborn both had six points; Dustin Triano had six points and four boards; Ali Faruz-Bey had 12 points and four boards; and JJ Chirnside had six points and four boards.
Low rebounding numbers, but… WOU shot 66% from the field and 46% from three specifically. Wow. Nicely done by the Wolves, great job sharing the wealth, and good luck to the Seawolves in bouncing back.
UAF 81 @ CU-PDX 66
At one point CU-PDX led… And then they didn’t. We’re confused about this Concordia team, but we’re confused about a lot of GNAC teams and will get into that more later.
Nook highlights: Amenofis Mitchell had eight points; Alex Baham went 6-6 from the line; Davis Kimball had 17 points, eight boards, and a full house; Joe Landway had nine points; and Michael Kluting was dominant with 23 points and 10 boards. Off the bench Tre Eisenhut had seven points.
Cav highlights: Jace Cates had 7 points and five boards; Jarrett Gray had 22 points and seven boards; Chris Edward had 11 points and 14 boards!! for the double-double; and off the bench Taylor Harris had five points. Lots of good individual numbers, but apparently not cohesion as a team.
Congrats to the Nooks on a great one… Again: CU-PDX, we’re confused. The numbers are fine, and you’re a good team and we know it, and yet… This, at home, okay? Um, what?
Tampa 77 vs. WWU 86 @ Hawaii Pacific
Solid result, if not irrelevant. Congrats to the Viks on another win.
Viking highlights: Trey Drechsel was once again playing great with 30 points and seven boards on good shooting; Logan Schilder had 10 points; Deandre Dixon had 10 points and six boards; Trevor Jasinsky had eight boards and eight points; and Daulton had 13 points and and seven boards, but it wasn’t a particularly good game for him -key word: HIM. Off the bench Brett Kingma had seven points; and Siaan Rojas had eight points and four boards.
Congrats to the Viks on the win -the numbers looked good.
MSUB 81 vs. Hilo 63 @ Hawaii Pacific
Hilo has a losing record, but all good: A West Region win is a win we’re grateful for. Nicely done MSUB!!
Yellowjacket highlights: KENDALL DENHAM WAS HIMSELF!!!!!! He had 17 points including going 5-5 from the line; Zharon Richmond had a great game going 4-5 from the field and finishing with 11 points and a full house; Zach Rollins had 15 points and eight boards; and Sven Jeuschede had 12 points. Off the bench Zack Lessinger had a solid game with 10 points and five boards.
Nicely done Yellowjackets! Is it a road game technically? No. Will we count it as one? For now. We feel like being nice.
All times pacific.
SPU @ Stanislaus @ 7pm
This game is way more interesting than we thought it would be at the beginning of the season, largely because Stanislaus is way better than anticipated. The Warriors are currently 8-2 and SPU still has no idea what their identity is, so…
Prediction: Stanislaus gets the ‘W.’
MSUB vs. Chaminade @ Hawaii Pacific @ 9:30pm
Chaminade is looking really solid with wins over the Alaska schools, Dominguez Hills, Cal Baptist, and Hawaii-Hilo and losses coming via CU-Irvine and Hawaii Pacific. It’s essentially a home game for the Swords, and thus…
Prediction: Chaminade wins. No idea on the margin.
Oh dear Spillings… What is happening to you?
Next post’ll be up at 1pm.
Results and then predictions for today.
CWU 80 @ MSUB 75
Wildcats got it done, MSUB put up a great fight. Just when you thought CWU was walking away with it, MSUB came in and said “absolutely not, you guys are gonna have to work harder than that,” and while it got dicey, Central pulled it out.
Wildcat highlights: Khalil Shabazz had nine points; Jawan Stepney had 12 points, five boards, and five assists (with ZERO turnovers!); and Fuquan had 23 points and five boards along with zero blocks -we consider this Fuquan being contained. Off the bench Marc Rodgers was 6-8 from the line; Sage Woodruff had a good game with four boards and 16 points; and Coleman Sparling had six points.
Yellowjacket highlights: Zack Rollins had 12 points; and Sven Jeuschede had 20 points and five boards. Off the bench Kobe Terashima had five points; Zharon Richmond had 11 points; and Daniel Shedden was 5-6 from the field, 3-4 from the line, finished with 14 points, and grabbed five boards, and fouled out.
YIKES on those turnovers MSUB. 28. MSUB had -28- turnovers. Improvement every day, congrats to the Wildcats on the road win.
WWU 80 vs. Harding 76 (Central region) @ Hawaii Pacific
The good news is that WWU won. The bad news is that not only is Harding out of Region, they were 0-7 coming into this game. If we had looked into it ahead of time, we would have expected a 30 point WWU blow-out. The fact that they only managed to beat an 0-7 team by four makes our Region look weak as all heck. Go figure.
Viking highlights: Trey Drechsel had eight boards and a full house; Trevor Jasinsky had five boards; and Daulton Hommes WENT OFF with 37 points and 12 boards. Off the bench Brad Wallace had five points; and Siaan Rojas had 13 points and four boards.
Way to pull out the ‘W,’ WWU.
Now to preview tonight’s games…
All times pacific standard.
UAA @ WOU @ 5pm
We think WOU should kill UAA, but we feel it’ll be closer than that. The thing is, UAA just hasn’t shown to have anything outside of Jacob Lampkin. He plays well, they win; he sits out or plays badly, they lose. That’s what the evidence has been. Except in this case WOU has so many options like that. Tanner Omlid is critical, but it takes multiple people having a bad game in order for the Wolves to lose, and so… Talent disparity. Provided WOU doesn’t fall into a black hole, they should be fine.
Prediction: WOU wins comfortably but not outrageously.
UAF @ CU-PDX @ 5pm
We’re super curious about this game because it seems like CU-PDX and MSUB are fairly well matched and so we expect UAF & CU-PDX to be fairly well matched. On the one hand the Cavs are at home, but on the other hand it’s Christmas break and Christmas break games are always weird. We’ll see what happens.
Prediction: Pick ’em.
WWU vs. Tampa (South region) @ Hawaii Pacific @ 7:45pm
Tampa is 4-5. The Vikings are so talented they should win comfortably, but their record doesn’t imply that they will necessarily. As long as they don’t lose, things are fine, so c’mon Viks! Get it done.
Prediction: Pick ’em.
MSUB vs. Hilo @ Hawaii Pacific @ 10pm
This is sooo fun. We love late night hoops! Hilo has lost to every GNAC team except WWU, will MSUB keep that going? We’ll see. The thing is -they’ve beat both Biola and CU-Irvine, two Pac-West teams that look legitimate. Is the GNAC reaaaally good? Is the Pac-West reaaaally bad? Is it somewhere in between? We were thinking the GNAC was having an up year and yet… Now we’re not sure.
Prediction: Pick ’em.
Should be a good night of hoops. We’ll try to get all but the MSUB/Hilo game results up in the previews post, but that game’ll be 50/50 because we have a super early wake-up tomorrow, so it may end up being included with Tuesday’s post instead.
Be safe, have fun, go GNAC!
Rollins 73, Saint Martin’s 67
Rollins is from the Sunshine State Conference and came into this game with a 4-4 record. They ultimately beat Saint Martin’s in a close one. Tyler Copp had a decent game –16 points, went 5-6 on free throws; Tyler Idowu had a double-double with 14 rebounds and 18 points, whilst picking up just one foul; Riley Carel had five assists and two steals whilst scoring eight points in 27 minutes off the bench. Not a bad game; the Saints could’ve had it but didn’t. That’ll be something to change down the line.
Dixie State 67, Saint Martin’s 62
The Saints were in it the whole way and again could’ve had it but didn’t. We tend to harp on Riley around here and today is no exception: He played 32 minutes off the bench, went 7-8 on free throws with five rebounds, four assists, six steals, and four player fouls -all of which are impressive; however, he had four turnovers and went 2-8 and 0-2 from the field respectively, which is never gonna work. At least two of the turnovers in particular were totally unnecessary -guys were wide open but he chose to play selfishly instead. In better news: Trey Ingram had nine points; Tyler Idowu went 4-4 and 5-8 with seven boards; and Brent Counts had some good moments ultimately grabbing six boards and eight points.
Seattle Pacific 76, Dixie State 66
This game was nothing short of hilarious: Seattle Pacific was down by A LOT early (something like 15-2) and yet finally displayed some moderately decent back up center play and things finally evened out. They changed their starting line-up yet again, which initially looked like a bad decision but ultimately turned out okay. Shawn Reid was positively out of his mind -went 12-15 and 5-7 from three, ultimately ending up with 30 points; Mitch Penner went 7-9 from the free throw line and with four rebounds, three assists, one steal, one block, and two player fouls picked up a full house along with 12 points; Brendan Carroll added eight points, Garrett Swanson nine points, and Riley Stockton 7 assists. This was a good gut check game against D2 competition for the Falcons.
Seattle Pacific 74, Rollins College 54
No let down game for the Falcons; heavy minutes were back in full force. Riley Stockton had a particularly interesting stat line -he scored no points on 0-8 shooting, but still grades out more than decently because he picked up nine assists, six boards, and a block; Brendan Carroll added 12, Matt Borton added 11 points and seven rebounds; Mitch Penner chipped in a double-double with ten boards and ten points; Cory Hutsen went 9-10 from the field and 3-4 on free throws for a whopping 21 points. Not much drama in this game, but again: good to avoid the let down.
Tarleton State 72, Western Washington 66
The shooting percentages on this team are nothing short of mortifying for all involved, but we’ll get onto the good news: Kyle Impero had eight boards; Jaamon Echols had 21 points; Anye Turner added 14 points and five fouls; Joey Schreiber had ten points. Fairly nice balance in terms of rebounding, but their assist numbers need severe amounts of help.
Western Washington 72, San Bernardino State 66
This is good. This is much better. San Bernardino is a much worse team than Tarleton State, but oh well -we’ll take what we can get. Jaamon massively improved his shooting percentage, ultimately finishing 5-8 from the field and 7-8 on free throws for 18 points in 31 minutes; Mac Johnson had 11 points and 11 rebounds; Ricardo Maxwell chipped in 15 points and ultimately while assists still need work it was a decent game. It felt like the Vikings were more playing down to their level of competition than the score really indicates, which wouldn’t be a bad thing except how low can and will the GNAC go on any given night? Something we’ll be yet to see.
Player-of-the-week nominees will be posted later today, non-Vegas games hopefully tomorrow, player-of-the-week soon after, and then individual team previews will start going up by early next week at the latest.
The GNAC faces a grand total of nine different non-west division two schools over the course of 12 games. The schools come from three different regions and four different conferences, with an independent thrown in simply for pleasure.
Most interesting is that no west-region school would face any of the teams until the Final Four, and thus these games could help set the tone for what’s seen as a strong region vs. a weak region.
The Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference:
CWU and SPU play Minnesota-Crookston.
Minnesota-Crookston finished an impressive 1-21 in conference and 4-23 overall. The games are being played in the Seattle Pacific gymnasium and so it’s a literal home game for the Falcons and a virtual one for the Wildcats. While CWU will inevitably have some growing pains this year, seeing as they lost everybody on a team that finished a disappointing 8-10 in conference and 12-14 overall, this game should be a good chance to do some happy growing early in the year. SPU regardless as to the fact that they lost most of their scoring, shouldn’t have any issues considering the potential scoring threats they have waiting in the wings, no pun intended.
UAF plays Minnesota-Moorhead.
Minnesota-Moorhead finished in a three-way tie for first place in their division and a three way tie for 3rd place in their conference with a 15-7 conference record, and a 21-8 record overall. Ultimately, the school did not make the tournament nor did anyone else in their division; the Northern Sun received one auto-bid and one at large bid, both to schools in the other division. UAF is another GNAC team that suffered catastrophic losses, but they’re playing a virtual home game at UAA. The Alaska advantage is huge and Moorhead seems likely to overlook that little fact, thus while it seems likely that the Dragons will win -the Nooks should at least put up a fight.
The Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletic Association:
SPU plays Washburn.
Washburn finished 5th in the MIAA with a conference record of 10-9 and overall record of 17-10. The conference itself sent four teams to the regional, and so while Washburn didn’t make the tournament, they were likely a very good team. This game is being played in Hawaii and so neither school is expected to hold an advantage nor disadvantage, and it should serve as a relatively good test for SPU with victory eventually being secured by the Falcons.
The Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference:
WOU and SMU play Colorado Christian.
Colorado Christian finished 13-9 in conference and 18-15 overall, good for a 7th place standing in a difficult conference. WOU finished 4th and SMU finished 8th last year. Both teams return good cores of players. WOU finished 10-8 and 18-12; SMU finished 8-10 and 9-17. No team of the three made the tournament. The games are being played in Monmouth, thus it’s a home game for WOU. Generally speaking you never know what WOU is going to do, and so the match-up should be interesting; SMU, it’ll be a matter of whether or not they can solidify their identity this early in the season. If the Saints can, the odds seem good for a close game; if they can’t, it’ll likely be a blowout.
MSUB plays Black Hills State.
Both teams are the Yellowjackets. Black Hills State finished 8-14 in conference and 10-16 overall; MSUB finished 8-10 in conference and 12-15 overall. Black Hills State was by and far in the stronger conference, and the Montana Yellowjackets lost a fair bit of their core, but… This is actually a rivalry game. Anything can happen in a rivalry game. Black Hills killed MSUB last year, so it seems like the revenge factor might be there. MSUB is playing at home and they generally have a great home court advantage, but the wildcard of this year: the game lands the day before Elk and Deer season end. No prediction.
The Lone Star Conference:
NNU plays at Texas A&M Kingsville. NNU finished second to last with a 5-13 record in conference and a 7-19 record overall. TAMU-Kingsville finished 7-7 in conference and 19-9 overall. NNU has some interesting transfers coming in that could lead to big things, but it seems likely that Kingsville wins the game easily.
NNU and WWU both play Tarleton State.
NNU, as noted, was second to last in our conference, whereas WWU was second from the top although didn’t make the tournament. Tarleton won their conference with a 12-2 record and a 28-3 record overall. They made the tournament as the 2 seed and progressed to the round of 32, losing by a mere six points. Tarleton, like WWU, is a good team year in and year out; the match-up against NNU shouldn’t be a problem, and the match-up in Vegas with Western Washington should be one of the better games on the GNAC’s non-conference slate.
The Sunshine State Conference:
SPU & SMU play Rollins.
Rollins finished 14-13 overall last year and 8-8 in a conference that sent half their teams to the NCAA tourney, although they themselves didn’t go. Teams are different year to year and even day to day, but judging where each team finished and knowing how both SPU and SMU prepare… St. Martin’s and Rollins should be a fairly compelling match-up, but Rollins definitely holds the advantage. This is the first game either team plays in Vegas, and so the legs should be nice and fresh, which will hopefully lead to a competitive game.
Seattle Pacific is a different story; they’ll have played what’s likely to be a very exhausting game against Dixie State the day prior, and thus… they could be in kill mode, they could be in let-down mode, or they could be in “let’s get this over with mode;” we’ll have to see. It might be a good mis-match in SPU’s favor, or it might be a hard fought battle. It is doubtful, however, that the Falcons’ll get blown out.
Regardless of what actually happens, we’ll hope both GNAC teams show up in “WE LIVE IN CONSTANT DRIZZLE, TAKE YOUR SUNSHINE AND SHOVE IT,” mode. Not because the Sunshine State Conference isn’t fantastic, but simply because you know, stereotypes.
WWU plays Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras. The team finished 2-10, and in the games they won had a combined margin of victory of four points. WWU is expected to have a great time on their vacation to Puerto Rico.
That is the D2 non conference for the GNAC; is the analysis in-depth? No. Because it doesn’t matter a ton anyway: the odds of a repeat game between one of the schools this calendar year is small, and the teams would be vastly different anyway. The implication overall will be basic: if we win, it won’t really say a lot; if we lose, it’ll say that we’re not as strong as we could be.
Thoughts on the DII Bulletin Pre-Season Top 25 is up next.
This page just went up simultaneously. Check it out; it contains a list of every non-West D2 school, sorted by conference and region. It also links to the men’s basketball section of every conference website.
Since the CCAA is yet to post their schedule, there will be three separate posts regarding the D2 non-region scheduling of the GNAC, Pac-West, and CCAA respectively; look forward to the GNAC one tomorrow.
In the mean time -there’s rarely a reason to really look at the numbers because D2 is so regional, but numbers are fun!
Here are some base numbers in terms of likeliness of making the tournament, strictly by the numbers.
24 conferences/auto bids
Overall, you have a 21% chance of making the tournament. Those don’t seem like bad odds, especially because every single conference receives at least one bid.
Regionally… there’s some significant variation, even just with numbers involved.
Your chance of making the tourney in each of the following regions:
South Central: 25%
Again, not bad odds when it’s only numbers.
Making it by procuring your conference auto-bid?
Great Northwest Athletic Conference: 10%
Pacific West Conference: 7%
California Collegiate Athletic Association: 8%
Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference: 6%
Lone Star Conference: 11%
Heartland Conference: 12.5%
Peach Belt Conference: 7%
South Atlantic Conference: 8%
Conference Carolinas: 10%
Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: 7%
Sunshine State Conference: 10%
Gulf South Conference: 10%
Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletic Association: 7%
Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference: 6%
Great American Conference: 10%
Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association: 8%
Mountain East Conference: 9%
Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference: 5%
Northeast-10 Conference: 6%
Central Atlantic Collegiate Conference: 7%
East Coast Conference: 10%
Great Lakes Valley Conference: 6%
Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: 6%
Great Midwest Athletic Conference: 11%
Some of those odds are really variable; it looks appealing to be in the GNAC where you have a 10% chance, except… 10% of that 10% is being willing to live in Fairbanks, Alaska for most of the year, which most people don’t want to do.
In the RMAC while you only have a 6% chance of making the tournament with an auto bid, the odds of living in a very desirable locale are quite good and thus the odds of getting good enough guys that you don’t need the auto bid to make the tourney are much higher.
Remember: The numbers consist of only the numbers.
Everything’s fair when it comes math; I tend to think that there’s less bias in D2 about strong and weak regions because no one is selecting the region you’ll play in; they’re merely selecting your seed. And when it comes to your seeding… you have to beat everybody.
Period. This is can be really, really annoying at times and is basically the only thing I dislike about the D2 system.
Two years ago, on a national level, WWU, Cal Poly Pomona, and SPU were all ranked in the Top 4 overall. However, they’re all in the same region. SPU and Cal Poly Pomona played each other in the round of 32, SPU and WWU played each other in the round of 16, WWU went to the Elite Eight.
While the best eight teams aren’t necessarily playing in the Elite Eight, there’s a good argument that the best team from each region goes to the Elite Eight. If you can’t win when it counts, you are clearly not the best.
The fact that it is so regional, also makes regions that much more fun. While there’s not a particular reason to know about schools outside, the implications of what’s going on within can be huge.
Last year on January 4th, I extrapolated that San Bernardino would host and the GNAC would be a one bid league unless the regular season champion and tournament winner were different. Roughly 275 games later, I was proven correct.
Meanwhile, back in numbers land…
You have roughly a 2.7% chance overall of making the Elite Eight, therefore a 2.7% chance of seeing a team outside of your own region in March.
The numbers by region:
South Central: 3.1
This is why your region matters, but the others don’t. It also explains why this blog is so obsessed with the Pac-West and CCAA: it’s a GNAC blog; we’re in the West Region; what happens nationally matters little, and we have little control over it. What we do have control over is how our conference is viewed within the region, proving that those in-conference wins are a big deal, and therefore securing our seeding.
All the same, every D2 game is important and next we’ll take a look at the GNAC vs. the non-west D2.