Bracketology 2018-2019 Pt. 3!

Alright, conference play has finished up and the conference tournaments start on Thursday, and so… Let’s talk about where things are as of now in each of the three conferences.

Note: Records noted are all purely in-conference.


Pac-West

The final weekend of the season saw Point Loma beat CU-I 93-83, Azusa beat their two opponents comfortably, and Chaminade eke out a win against Hilo (but rivalry game? So probably whatever).

Dominican is hosting the conference tournament and the seeding is:

  1. Point Loma (20-2)
  2. Concordia-Irvine (18-4)
  3. Chaminade (16-6)
  4. Azusa Pacific (16-6)
  5. Holy Names (11-11)  -note that this is a big overachievement, nicely done Hawks.
  6. Academy of Art (11-11) -another big overachievement, nicely done Knights.

Two big overachievements doesn’t speak to the strength of the Pac-West, but it does speak to the idea that the entire West Region is having a down year.

Bracketology remains the same; we expect Point Loma to be in and vying against the GNAC’s Saint Martin’s for the bid to host. SMU has a win over Point Loma, so… If both bow out of their respective conference tournaments at the same time, SMU should get the nod.


CCAA 

The final weekend saw Cal Poly Pomona get a close win against San Bernardino; UCSD blow-out both East Bay and Monterey Bay; and East Bay lose both @ San Marcos and @ UCSD. We now think East Bay’s slipped into being a bubble team if upsets rattle the conference tournament brackets at all.

East Bay is hosting the conference tournament and the seeding is:

  1. Cal Poly Pomona (17-5)
  2. UC San Diego (17-5)
  3. East Bay (16-6)
  4. San Francisco State (14-8)
  5. Cal State LA (13-9)
  6. Dominguez Hills (12-10)
  7. San Bernardino (11-11)
  8. Humboldt State (11-11)

Because the CCAA does eight schools, the first round is hosted by the respective higher seeds on Tuesday before everyone heads to East Bay on Friday.

As good as Cal Poly Pomona is, their lack of non-con makes us think they have no hope of hosting. With UCSD, because they ended the season tied and went on a bad losing streak late, their well-played non-con ends up being moot because PLNU and SMU both also played good non-cons and finished the regular season strong.


GNAC

The final weekend of GNAC play brought chaos as four teams vied for the final two spots, while SPU and NNU vied for the first round BYE. Ultimately MSUB won both of their games, while UAA, SFU, and WWU all split leaving the three teams tied. UAA’s best win was against #3 NNU, and so they were out; SFU and WWU both were 1-1 against SMU, 0-2 against SPU, and the distinction was made with SFU being 1-1 against NNU while WWU was 0-2, and thus perpetual basement dweller Simon Fraser is IN THE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT!!!!!

SPU @ NNU ultimately saw the Falcons grind out a close victory (make your free throws, folks!), while conference leading SMU almost got upset by second-from-the-bottom Central Washington; it went to 2OT. Insane.

Western Washington is hosting the conference tournament and the seeding is:

  1. Saint Martin’s (17-3)
  2. Seattle Pacific (16-4)
  3. Northwest Nazarene (14-6)
  4. Western Oregon (13-7)
  5. MSU-Billings (10-10)
  6. Simon Fraser (9-11)

Bracketology: We think SMU and SPU are for sure in, probably regardless as to whether or not they bow out early. NNU is a bubble team, their “what have you done for me lately” is 50/50. They lost at WOU, they almost lost at GNAC #9 CU-Portland, they lost to SMU, and they lost to SPU. They also don’t have as good of a non-con compared to #3 peers Chaminade and East Bay.

As for hosting the Regional, we think the Saints control their own destiny. If they win the conference tournament, they should be hosting. If they lose at the same time as Point Loma, they should be hosting. If Point Loma wins the Pac-West and SMU doesn’t win the GNAC, we’re likely headed to San Diego.


Right now, provided upsets don’t scramble the conference tournament brackets, in our opinion it should be:

  • Saint Martin’s
  • Point Loma
  • Cal Poly Pomona
  • UCSD
  • Seattle Pacific
  • Northwest Nazarene
  • Chaminade
  • East Bay

With East Bay getting the nod over CU-I just because it’s a rare occurrence for East Bay to be up this high, whereas CU-I has consistently been good on a D2 level and we assume that they know they’re having a bad year and simply seeded #2 in a down year for the Pac-West.

We can’t stand the Top 25 ranking system as it comes to D2, and so we usually don’t look at rankings until the Regional Rankings come out, so… Let’s see what the Powers That Be are saying now…

WHAAAAT??? THEY ACTUALLY AGREE WITH US?!?! Their seeded list from a week ago is:

  1. Saint Martin’s
  2. Point Loma
  3. Seattle Pacific
  4. Cal Poly Pomona
  5. Chaminade
  6. UCSD
  7. Northwest Nazarene
  8. East Bay
  9. CU-Irvine
  10. Western Oregon

We didn’t want to put SPU that high because we felt like we were being homers and because we look at this SPU team and compared to past SPU teams they’re not that great, but… It is a down year and what they’re doing is apparently enough.

We like that WOU is listed at 10 because they do feel like a threat to receive the auto bid and those guys do have so much experience and they have a recent blow-out win over NNU. They also have a recent loss to GNAC #7 WWU, but… That’s why Regional #10. They’re in the conversation and a definite threat to win the GNAC tourney, but not a guarantee.


All of that said… That’s where things are at as we head into the conference tournaments.

GNAC’ers: Player-of-the-week math is being done tonight, so it’ll be up tomorrow, along with the final iteration of the conference round robin.

Be safe, have fun, go GNAC!