Discussions: Conference Tourney Seeding

There are still two to four regular season games left per team, these games are going to be huge, this is going to be a general West Region post.

  • Currently ranked teams/teams getting votes
  • Teams that have clinched spots in their respective conference tournaments
  • What teams those teams have left to play, the W/L projections or not.
  • Regional projection

West Region Ranked Teams:

15. Western Oregon (WOU)
16. Cal Baptist (CBU)
17. Azusa Pacific (APU)
22. BYU-Hawaii (BYU-H)

Cal Poly Pomona, Point Loma, and Chico State all received votes.

West Region Conference Tournament Births

These include the games teams have let to play and the projections; red means they’re likely losses, green means wins, and black means it’s a toss-up. All of the records include toss-up games as losses, just to see the possible scenario; obviously some of these teams play each other, so not everyone is going to lose. Projected conference tournament seeds in parentheses.

Western Oregon
Alaska Anchorage
Central Washington
Seattle Pacific

Births left: Two.
Projected teams to receive them: Northwest Nazarene and Western Washington
Could sneak in: Simon Fraser
Who would you prefer to play: Simon Fraser

Western Oregon (1)
13-1, 21-3 = 15-3, 23-5
Regional Losses: Point Loma, Azusa Pacific
Last loss: Jan. 1 to Seattle Pacific
Games left to play: WWU, SFU, @UAA, @UAF

Honestly expect them to win every game, but better to throw it in as a toss-up.

Alaska Anchorage (4)
10-4, 14-10 = 11-7, 15-13
Regional Losses: Humboldt State, BYU-H, Sonoma State, Chico State,
Last loss: Feb. 14 to Seattle Pacific
Games left to play: @CWU, @ NNU, Saint Martin’s, WOU

Most brutal remaining schedule.

Central Washington (3)
9-5, 14-7 = 11-7, 16-9
Regional Losses: Numerous -BYU-H, HPU being their non-con losses.
Last loss: Feb. 12 to Western Washington
Games left to play: UAA, UAF, @SPU, @MSUB

Second most brutal remaining schedule, but they get a break unlike Cenazar (CWU/NNU) challengers.

Seattle Pacific (2)
10-5, 18-7 = 12-6, 20-8
Losses: Academy of Art, BYU-H in non-con
Last Loss: Feb. 7 to Simon Fraser
Games left to play: MSUB, CWU, NNU

No road games left. Falcons have been road warriors though, so… hmmm.

Azusa Pacific
Dixie State
Cal Baptist
Point Loma

Births left: One
Projected team to receive it: Unknown
Will be in: Hawaii Pacific or Dominican
Who would you prefer to play: Dominican.

Azusa Pacific
15-3, 22-4 = 16-4, 23-5
Regional Losses: Cal Poly Pomona
Last Loss: Feb. 7 to Cal Baptist
Teams still to play: CBU & FPU

Dixie State
15-3, 18-6 = 17-4, 20-7
Regional Losses: Western Oregon, Seattle Pacific
Last Loss: Jan. 24 to Azusa Pacific
Teams still to play: @FPU, PLNU

Cal Baptist
14-3, 20-4 = 16-4, 22-5
Regional Losses: None
Last Loss: Jan. 31 to BYU-H
Games still to play: @FPU, @APU, NDdN

12-5, 18-5 = 15-5, 21-5
Regional Losses: None
Last Loss: Feb. 16 to CBU
Games still to play: Hilo, HNU, Art U.

BYU-H is interesting -they’re on a three game losing streak all to tournament bound teams, but they have three home games coming up to basement dwellers.

Point Loma
12-6, 19-6 = 13-7, 20-7
Regional losses: None
Last loss: Feb. 12 to Hawaii Pacific
Games still to play: NDdN, @ Dixie State

Cal Poly Pomona
Chico State

Births left: Four
Projected: Humboldt, Stanislaus, UCSD, San Bernardino
Will be in: The four as noted.
Who would you rather play: Not Stanislaus.

Cal Poly Pomona
14-4, 18-5 = 16-6, 20-7
Regional Losses: Point Loma
Last Loss: Feb. 7 to Chico State
Games still to play: CSULA, Dominguez Hills, @ San Bernardino State, @ Humboldt State

Interesting; Bernardino and Humboldt are the CCAA equiv to MSUB and SPU.

Chico State
14-4, 17-6 = 18-4, 21-6
Regional Losses: Dominican, Azusa Pacific
Last loss: Feb. 14 to Humboldt State
Games still to play: @ Sonoma State, @ San Fran State, Monterey Bay, East Bay.

Chico should get through that wholly unscathed, meaning Cal Poly is the one walking on “ice.”

What does all of that tell us about who’s making the tournament? Very little really, because in the conference tournaments anything can happen. Still, that gives you your 18 teams that could potentially procure your auto bids.

Once again:

Western Oregon*
Alaska Anchorage
Central Washington
Seattle Pacific
Western Washington (not in, but projected in)

Azusa Pacific*
Dixie State*
Cal Baptist*
BYU-Hawaii (*)
Point Loma

Cal Poly Pomona*
Chico State*
Humboldt State
San Bernardino State

Teams denoted with asterisks are suspected to not need the auto bid. The respective conference tournament winners do receive an automatic birth to the NCAA tourney. That means:

Western Oregon
Azusa Pacific
Dixie State
Cal Baptist
Cal Poly Pomona
CCAA autobid (Chico or Stanislaus)
BYU-H/Pac-West auto bid
GNAC auto bid

Bold teams bubbles shouldn’t be able to burst.

BYU-H from the Pac-West is grey area; they’re kind of a bubble team for not needing the auto-bid.

Who has potential to win their conference and procure a birth they otherwise wouldn’t get? Not Point Loma. They’re in too strong of a conference, so even if they do make the championship game of their conference tourney, there are still more deserving teams, because if picking between playing PLNU vs. APU/CBU/BYU-H/DSU, it’ll be PLNU every time.

Stanislaus wants a strong tournament run and they’re the pick for winning the conference tournament and getting that auto-bid. If BYU-H doesn’t win, it’ll be a toss up who makes it between them and Chico State. Which team would you rather play? No clue. BYU-H if the game is played on the mainland, which likely means that Chico would get the nod.

Now, you want to know about the GNAC? Western Oregon is in, for sure, no auto bid needed. And what’s even more frightening: they seem like a big candidate to win the conference tournament. If you’re a WOU person that sounds great, but they’re still not gonna host. Why? Because the Pac-West deserves to host. They’ve been the strongest conference. It will go to one of those teams. Which is unfortunate: We made the case weeks ago that Monmouth would be a terrific place to have the Regional.

Still, it always comes down to who would you rather play? APU, CBU or WOU? As a GNAC person it’s hard to think that you’d want to play WOU, but from a regional perspective, you would. If WOU had been in the Pac-West, would they boast the same record? Doubtful. And everyone’s beaten everyone. Part of this is the new blood issue: the Pac-West teams would much rather play a GNAC team; GNAC teams would likely rather play a Pac-West team; the CCAA teams are brutes and they don’t monkey flyin’ care because they’ll play anyone, anywhere, but… we’ve still got miles to go before that has a chance to happen.

TL;DR, GNAC: Short answer: No, WOU will not host -think SPU not hosting last year.

A post discussing the GNAC conference tourney’ll be up at about 10pm.


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