Hi Pac-West & CCAA folks!
You deserve your own post in analyzing your play against each other. To the GNAC folks reading this -no being offended allowed! The Pac-West is good this year and deserves credit; the CCAA currently owns us 6-2, so we can shut-up regardless.
Click it and it’ll get readable.
What does that chart really tell us about the Pac-West? Very little that we didn’t already know: Azusa Pacific is good; Cal Baptist is good (again); Dominican could be a team to watch out for; Point Loma is better than they’ve been in the past and had a nice win against Cal Poly Pomona.
The Hawaii schools didn’t play anyone and so their results against the GNAC are going to be the thing looked at primarily. Dixie State screws everything up by blowing out Stanislaus, but the inclination is to think that Stanislaus was missing somebody OR that Dixie State simply has a screw loose… for good or for bad. Not sure how you want to look at that one; teams with screws loose can and do often have their moments in conference tournaments.
Dixie lost to WOU, killed Stanislaus, went up 17-2 on SPU and then fell apart, let SMU play them really close the entire time… and then lost the games they should lose and won the games they should win otherwise, thus far. We’ll see.
Going on down the list…
- Azusa Pacific should be in; they beat a range of CCAA teams convincingly as well as Western Oregon and Saint Martin’s. As long as they don’t implode during conference, birth secured.
- Cal Baptist also should be in; they didn’t play a single GNAC team, but also beat a range of CCAA teams convincingly; they too are in as long as they don’t implode in conference.
- Hawaii Pacific… we’ll see. Beat some GNAC teams, had an okay loss to Seattle Pacific, played no CCAA teams. Prove it during conference play.
- Dixie State, as noted: doubtful. Their bubble likely burst with the loss to SPU, provided they don’t do something outrageous during conference and/or win the conference tournament.
- BYU-Hawaii: same as HPU; strong showing in non-conference, now prove it during conference; beating up on a weak GNAC doesn’t say too much.
- Dominican: curious; potential; interesting to watch in conference play; watch out for them in the Pac-West tourney.
- Point Loma: improving, but not a threat for a birth.
- Chaminade: Always potential, but unlikely.
- Academy of Art: Showed lots of promise and then fell on their face. Bounce back potential, but ultimately unlikely.
- Fresno Pacific: No.
- Hawaii-Hilo: No.
- Notre Dame de Namur: No.
- Holy Names: No.
In regard to the CCAA:
Sonoma State is listed first because they are, even though they haven’t played anybody yet, thus: expect it to change.
Going down their list of teams is much more muddied, partly because they spend most of their non-conference playing their fellow California schools that are on different levels. Still, from what can be extrapolated in regard to division two results:
- Sonoma State: Meh.
- Cal Poly Pomona: Likely.
- CSU-Stanislaus: Haven’t really played anybody yet, it’ll do with conference context.
- Chico State: On the inside of the bubble, just barely.
- Monterey Bay: Unlikely.
- CSU-LA: Doubtful.
- SF State: Unlikely.
- UCSD: No.
- San Bernardino State: Unlikely.
- CSU-East Bay: No.
- Humboldt State: Potentially -they’ve stepped it up this year.
- CSU-Dominguez Hills: No.
Remember: This isn’t division one; some of the match-ups were set up years in advance, but most were formally set after the conference tournament. If two teams that projected to be good this year wanted to play each other, they could’ve. Wish they’d do it more. Wish strength of schedule was more of a thing -it varies so much year-to-year in regard to division two that it’s a different argument entirely as to whether or not that’s possible, and because of how regional it is whether it matters anyway.
You may note that home vs. away isn’t given any precedence during non-conference; this is largely because half the games are so sparsely attended that it doesn’t matter, a third of them are played in tournaments, and the remaining… it doesn’t matter. It really doesn’t matter. Just win games.
To the Pac-West and CCAA people:
This could be totally off; that’s okay.
There’ll be a post catching up with you guys during the very last week of January, and then the blog will become pretty region based once we reach the respective conference tournaments, so… subscribe now, or check in with us then!
Up next is a collective on the West Region as it stands right now, with some mild shenanigans thrown in.